Gas and electricity prices have fluctuated in September 2024 due to market tightness, geopolitical risks, and ongoing energy transitions. Although prices are stabilising, uncertainty remains as the market prepares for the winter season. Here is a breakdown of the key highlights from each week in September:
Week of 2nd of September 2024: Norwegian Maintenance Fuels Price Increases
Prices rose slightly as Norway’s gas maintenance reduced supply. While UK and EU storage levels are high, concerns remain about further extensions of this maintenance. China's oil demand dropped, and geopolitical tensions continue to support a risk premium.
Week of 9th of September 2024: Falling Demand Eases Price Pressure
Gas prices fell 15% and electricity 8% in the past month, driven by weak demand and high storage levels. Increased wind generation reduced gas demand for power production, while the LNG supply picture improved with secured shipments for Europe and the UK.
Week of 16th of September 2024: Mild Weather Drives Gas Price Decline
Gas prices fell due to milder weather and consistent Norwegian gas supply. Global LNG availability improved, and UK power capacity remained strong despite the closure of its last coal plant. Optimism for Winter 2024/25 is growing in the market.
Week of 23rd of September 2024: Market Calm After Norwegian Maintenance
Prices fell further, aided by the end of Norwegian maintenance and high EU storage. Unconfirmed reports of Ukrainian gas transit agreements also helped ease concerns, but Middle East conflicts briefly pushed prices up at the start of the week.
Week of 30th of September 2024: Rising Tensions Drive Price Increases
Gas and electricity prices climbed as Middle East conflicts escalated and temperatures dropped below seasonal norms, increasing reliance on gas for power. Despite these short-term pressures, high European gas storage and strong LNG imports to the UK provide a buffer against long-term price surges.
Concluding Thoughts: Adapting to Market Realities
September 2024 saw fluctuating energy prices due to supply issues, geopolitical risks, and energy transitions. Easing Norwegian maintenance and high storage levels point to stabilisation, but Middle East tensions and supply agreements add uncertainty. Long-term contracts suit risk-averse clients, while short-term deals favour those seeking immediate price savings.
