September saw sharp volatility in wholesale energy markets, driven by US-Iran tensions, Strait of Hormuz disruption and constrained Qatari LNG. Winter 2026/27 prices stayed elevated, while later years remained lower. Here’s the month in review.
Week of 31st August 2026
Prices rose sharply as renewed US-Iran fighting raised fears of continued Hormuz disruption, and QatarEnergy extended LNG force majeure into November. Winter prices rose significantly over the week, though warm weather and completed US LNG maintenance helped limit the gains.
Week of 7th September 2026
Strikes resumed over the weekend as the US hit three Iranian oil tankers following Iranian missile attacks on US warships. Iran warned of a new restricted Gulf zone and shipping corridor through Hormuz. Forecast warm weather and Ukraine’s lower gas imports offered some relief.
Week of 14th September 2026
Prices eased from earlier sharp rises but stayed elevated, with winter prices still well above last year. Postponed Iran-Gulf talks and a widening conflict kept pressure on, while Summer 2027 gained a growing risk premium as markets considered disruption lasting beyond this winter.
Week of 21st September 2026
Prices fell sharply as diplomacy around the UN General Assembly eased some geopolitical risk premium. Winter gas and electricity both dropped back from recent highs. However, Qatari LNG remains constrained and storage is low, so the underlying risk persists.
Week of 28th September 2026
Prices have fallen over two weeks as more LNG tankers passed through Hormuz and Norwegian supplies recovered. However, European storage is still below target and cooler weather is forecast, so the fall may not last.
Summary
September’s moves show how quickly energy costs can change. Winter 2026/27 remains expensive and sensitive to geopolitical developments, while later years are considerably lower. Businesses should weigh certainty against risk and follow their agreed purchasing strategy.
Disclaimer: The information provided in this report is for information purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Energy prices can be volatile and may rise or fall based on market conditions, economic events, supply and demand, geopolitical developments and other factors. Each business should make its energy buying decisions based on its own attitude to risk and what it could withstand if energy prices rise.
