August saw wholesale energy prices ease briefly before rising again, as Middle East uncertainty, tight European gas supply and weather pressures kept markets volatile. Here is how the month unfolded for businesses buying energy.
Week of 3rd August 2026
Prices softened as markets anticipated a possible US–Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, helped by diverted LNG cargoes and favourable weather. However, no deal was confirmed, Norwegian maintenance continued, and the market remained vulnerable to disruption.
Week of 10th August 2026
Prices remained close to recent highs as Hormuz negotiations made little progress. Reduced LNG imports, constrained Norwegian supply and heat-related pressure on European power markets kept the market tight, while low wind increased reliance on gas-fired generation.
Week of 17th August 2026
Prices rose again as the US–Iran memorandum expired, talks stalled and further attacks on shipping were reported. Extended Norwegian outages and low European storage added pressure, though some returning Qatari LNG and softer Asian demand offered limited relief.
Week of 24th August 2026
Prices continued to climb across near-term delivery periods, with the coming winter carrying the largest premium. Later-dated contracts remained considerably lower, highlighting a clear gap between near-term risk and longer-term value on the forward curve.
Summary
Near-term prices remain elevated and sensitive to Hormuz developments, while later-dated prices reflect far less risk. Businesses should focus on managing exposure rather than predicting the market, following their agreed procurement strategy and considering value across future delivery periods.
Disclaimer The information provided in this report is for information purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Prices of the commodities referred to can be volatile, and past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The energy markets are dynamic, and prices may rise or fall based on factors including market conditions, economic events, and investor sentiment. The content of the report is subject to change without notice, and the accuracy of the information cannot be guaranteed. Always consider the risks involved in risk management activities, and be aware that market fluctuations create the potential for both gains and losses. Each business must make its energy buying decisions based on its attitude to risk and what the business could withstand if energy prices spike.
