The July 2026 Energy Market Update saw wholesale energy markets turn volatile as renewed conflict between the US and Iran reignited geopolitical risk. With the ceasefire declared over, Strait of Hormuz shipping threatened, and prices trending upward, near-term relief looked unlikely.
Week of 6th July 2026
Trump declared the ceasefire over after Iran struck US bases in Bahrain and Kuwait, prompting US strikes on over 80 Iranian targets. Markets priced in renewed risk to Hormuz shipping, with wholesale prices unlikely to ease until well into 2027.
Week of 13th July 2026
European gas hit a three-month high as Trump threatened further strikes on Iran. A Freeport LNG outage and reduced Åsgard output tightened supply, while storage sat at 52%, well below the 68% seasonal average, keeping the outlook firmly bullish.
Week of 20th July 2026
Prices continued their sharpest rise in over two years, driven by geopolitical tensions. New Energy Secretary Miatta Fahnbulleh signalled policy continuity on net zero. Hormuz shipping partly resumed, easing some risk premium, though heatwaves kept European power demand elevated.
Week of 27th July 2026
Price rises spread further along the forward curve, with 2028-2030 contracts strengthening too, suggesting traders see longer-term risk. Oil topped USD 90/bl as US strikes on Iran entered a ninth day, with Hormuz transits falling sharply.
Summary
July saw wholesale prices climb steadily on escalating Iran-related risk, tight LNG supply and below-average storage. With volatility spreading further along the curve, businesses renewing before Winter 2026/27 should engage early rather than wait for a market low.
For further insights and information on the dynamic landscape of the 2026 energy market, feel free to contact us:
01738474630
theteam@herestheplan.co.uk
Disclaimer The information provided in this report is for information purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Prices of the commodities referred to can be volatile, and past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The energy markets are dynamic, and prices may rise or fall based on factors including market conditions, economic events, and investor sentiment. The content of the report is subject to change without notice, and the accuracy of the information cannot be guaranteed. Always consider the risks involved in risk management activities, and be aware that market fluctuations create the potential for both gains and losses. Each business must make its energy buying decisions based on its attitude to risk and what the business could withstand if energy prices spike.
