June was a month of volatility, from Iran-conflict spikes to a sharp mid-month price fall, then renewed uncertainty. Here’s our week-by-week breakdown of wholesale market drivers, what they meant for contracts, and what we’re watching next.
Week of 1st June
Fresh US-Iran strikes kept Hormuz risk elevated, pushing winter contracts to their highest premium since 2022. Bearish signals included Germany’s new Canadian LNG deal and record UK wind/solar output cutting gas-fired generation by a third year-on-year. Diplomacy continued in Doha, but a breakthrough remained days away at best.
Week of 8th June
Prices hit a two-week high as Hormuz tensions persisted and EU storage sat at 43%, below seasonal norms. NESO’s 1,500MW interconnector cap added winter risk. Our advice: clients renewing within three months should fix now — downside potential looks limited against the risk of sudden upward price shocks.
Week of 15th June
Prices fell as Hormuz shipping resumed and Europe’s gas storage outlook improved. Warm weather cut heating demand, while strong UK renewable output reduced reliance on gas-fired power. Electricity prices eased too, though hot weather and carbon costs limited the fall.
Week of 22nd June
Gas hit a two-month low on the interim US-Iran deal, before edging up as tensions resurfaced over Hormuz and Lebanon. Storage remained tight at 46.7%. We continued advising clients with renewals in the next 6-12 months to review options early, as pricing windows can close quickly.
Week of 29th June
A cargo ship attack renewed Hormuz safe-passage concerns, though the US and Iran agreed to stand down. Iran sanctions waivers offered longer-term bearish support. NESO’s 8.8% winter capacity margin, down from 10% last year, kept some upside risk in play for Winter-26 power.
Summary
The current market requires a proactive, structured approach to purchasing and risk management. With confirmed supply disruption and extended recovery timelines, focus should shift toward securing coverage and managing exposure, rather than relying on a near-term correction. Markets further ahead (2027-29) look less affected, with Asian and European supply improvements helping suppress prices.
