September 2025 Energy Market Update: What’s Driving Gas and Power Prices This Autumn.
As we enter the final quarter of 2025, the UK and European energy markets remain steady but alert to upcoming risks. Traders are watching winter weather forecasts, geopolitical developments, and regulatory changes that could shape gas and electricity prices in the months ahead.
This update summarises the key energy market trends and price drivers from September 2025, helping businesses understand what’s influencing the market and how to plan their energy strategy going into winter.
Week of 1st September 2025 – Balanced Fundamentals Amid Norwegian Maintenance
The European gas market traded relatively flat, supported by balanced supply and demand. Heavy September maintenance reduced Norwegian exports by around a third, but storage levels across Europe sat comfortably at 78% full, easing winter supply concerns.
Traders continued building stockpiles ahead of the heating season, while weaker Asian LNG demand kept more cargoes flowing to Europe. Carbon prices supported short-term momentum, though high storage capped any risk premium.
Key takeaway: Strong storage keeps prices steady, but early winter volatility remains possible.
Week of 8th September 2025 – Trade Tensions Add Market Uncertainty
Global energy markets faced renewed uncertainty after President Trump suggested trade deals with the EU, Japan, and South Korea could unravel if key tariffs are overturned by the US Supreme Court. This raised questions around global trade flows, industrial investment, and potential impacts on energy demand and pricing.
Key takeaway: Cautious sentiment persists as markets await clarity on trade and tariff rulings.
Week of 15th September 2025 – Strong Wind Generation Pushes Prices Lower
European gas prices eased as strong wind generation reduced reliance on gas-fired power. With Norwegian gas flows returning from maintenance, near-term contracts saw downward pressure.
Long-term outlooks were more bullish, driven by forecasts for growing LNG demand, industrial decarbonisation, and the rising power needs of AI technology. Geopolitical tensions, however, remained a key risk, with NATO invoking Article 4 after Russian drone activity in Poland.
Key takeaway: Renewable output softened near-term prices, but weather and geopolitical factors kept forward contracts firm.
Week of 22nd September 2025 – Stability Ahead of Winter
As the market entered its final pre-winter phase, European gas storage levels approached 83%, supporting supply security. LNG supply for Winter 2025/26 was forecast to rise 12% year-on-year, helping offset reduced Russian gas flows.
While economic weakness across the UK and Europe continued to suppress demand, tightening EU carbon markets (approaching €90/t) and elevated geopolitical risk kept prices supported.
Key takeaway: Stable markets heading into winter, with strong storage but persistent carbon and policy pressures.
Week of 29th September 2025 – Markets Turn Focus to Winter 2025
With October approaching, attention turned to Winter 2025 price risks. Geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and Gaza, coupled with rising oil prices, provided modest support.
On the bullish side, challenges in nuclear financing and integration with renewables added price support. Conversely, China’s manufacturing slowdown and increased LNG supply expectations balanced sentiment.
Key takeaway: Markets brace for potential winter volatility, with mild weather likely to ease prices—but geopolitical shocks could drive sudden spikes.
Concluding Thoughts – Positioning for Winter and Beyond
September 2025 was a month of relative calm, with balanced fundamentals and strong storage keeping wholesale energy prices stable. However, weather risks, carbon cost increases, and geopolitical tensions could still cause short-term volatility as winter begins.
For businesses with renewals due in Q4 2025–Q1 2026, fixing part of your energy volume now can help secure budget certainty while rates remain competitive. For mid to late 2026 contracts, waiting could offer downside potential as new supply comes online.
To ensure your energy strategy aligns with your organisation’s goals, speak to your Here’s The Plan Account Manager for tailored advice on contract timing and risk management.
☎️ 01738474630
✉️ theteam@herestheplan.co.uk
