Throughout July 2025, European energy markets remained sensitive to geopolitical developments, shifting supply dynamics, and volatile weather. Despite short-term price fluctuations, rising storage levels and easing global LNG conditions have created timely opportunities for buyers, especially those planning ahead for Winter 2025/26.
Week of 30th June 2025:
Ceasefire between Iran and Israel eased geopolitical risk, helping gas prices fall to a two-year low. Reduced wind boosted gas-for-power demand, while EU storage remained healthy. EDF calmed nuclear supply fears, supporting confidence in winter supply security.
Week of 7th July 2025:
Markets stabilised, with storage reaching 60%. Soft Asian LNG demand kept European supply strong. Heatwaves and weak wind lifted gas demand. Geopolitical risks lingered, but EDF’s reactor lifespan extension and UK grid investment supported long-term stability.
Week of 14th July 2025:
Modest price rises followed tightening storage and strong Asian cooling demand. Gas storage lagged seasonal norms. EU investment shortfalls and geopolitical tension added bullish pressure. However, macroeconomic weakness continued to suppress demand.
Week of 21st July 2025:
New EU sanctions on Russian gas pushed prices up, though improved Norwegian flows offered relief. Heatwaves, low hydro, and rising power demand added pressure. Storage hit 65%, but LNG competition with Asia and sanctions kept the outlook tense.
Week of 28th July 2025:
Prices held steady, with strong Winter 25/26 value seen in longer-term contracts. Global LNG growth and EU storage eased concerns. UK and EU infrastructure investments supported future supply, though geopolitics and regulatory risk added caution.
Conclusion:
With healthy EU gas storage, solid LNG flows, and long-term pricing visibility, conditions are favourable for securing energy contracts. Winter 25/26 pricing currently offers strong value. Fixing now can provide cost stability, while flex clients may benefit from a phased approach.
